Covid-19 in Europe

These are obviously grim statistics, but I think looking at the facts helps us come to terms with things.



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8173691/Is-softly-softly-Sweden-heading-catastrophe.html  Quoting:

Swedes really don't like to stand out. They much prefer to blend in. They even have their own word for it: 'Jantelagen', the Scandinavian answer to Australia and New Zealand's 'tall poppy syndrome'. It roughly translates as: 'don't think you're better than anyone else'. And so it's quite understandable that the Government's maverick response to the coronavirus crisis is making many in the country feel uneasy. After all, Sweden is the last major European country to have most of its schools, bars and restaurants still open. Yes, the government has asked people to work from home if possible, and those over 70 have been instructed to stay at home, while visits to elderly care homes have been banned.
But there have been no official lockdown directives - even though there have been more than 4,000 cases of infection and 180 deaths.

The only steps the Social Democratic-led coalition has taken is to close universities and higher education colleges, as well as to order restaurants and bars to only serve people at tables rather than at the crammed bar. There's also a ban on public gatherings. But with the limit set at 50 people, it's significantly more generous than other European countries, such as the UK, where the maximum is two . . .

And, as I write, Sweden appears to be surviving. Deaths have increased from 63 last Wednesday to 180 today, but the number of daily fatalities seems to be remaining steady at around 23-27 – less than one per cent of UK figures. More importantly, Sweden's infection rate is only doubling around every week. That may sound high, but it's more than twice as slow as in Spain and Italy. For all its critics, Sweden's liberal attempts to flatten its infection curve seem to be working. And yet being so out of step with the rest of Europe doesn't sit easy with many Swedes . . . All this goes some way to explaining why many Swedes are furious at their government's pointedly relaxed approach to containing coronavirus . . .

So why is Lofven and his government taking such a potentially dangerous non-interventionist approach? Part of the reason is to protect Sweden's economy. The government is well aware of the devastating economic impact that enacting an Italy-style lockdown could have on the country. It could leave whole communities out of work by the autumn. But there is also one other key, far less heralded, Swedish trait that may account for the country's more restrained attitude towards containing coronavirus: the government trusts its citizens to do the right thing and follow experts' guidance. Sweden is still a very community-led nation, especially away from the cities. People firmly believe that community comes first, not the individual . . .

Though not every voice in the scientific community is so optimistic. Fredrik Elgh, a virology professor at Umeå University, recently told SVT news: 'I'd rather Stockholm was quarantined. We are almost the only country in the world not doing everything we can to curb the infection. This is bloody serious.'

For their part, Tegnell and Lofven have not ruled out implementing stricter measures if the situation worsens. But in the meantime Sweden will continue to play an ambitious long game to protect its economy, citizens and society. And while the Swedes may not like being the centre of attention, if this risky strategy limits the loss of life and prevents the prolonged agony of a wrecked economy, they may well forgive the government for thrusting them into the global spotlight.

But look at these graphs from https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/england-and-wales-mortality-during-the-covid-19-outbreak/:




So what's going on really?

Coronavirus 19 is a very medium death risk:

Yesterday our governor extended the closures of all nonessential businesses ,school ect. until May 20th. They say that we are getting a handle on the spread of the virus but the restriction seem to be getting tighter. People are really afraid, and most folks seem to be compliant with the new rules.

The department that I work in is being transformed back into a hospital floor. It is very sad because I love my job and going to work. The national guard is coming in on Monday to pack up and store all of our equipment. They stuck us in a tiny office.
Now we are on a rotating schedule and only doing inpatient tests.
It is all very surreal.
I can't imagine this lockdown going on through the summer

I hope you get through it all okay, Sary. It is very worrying at first, but it's surprising how soon you get used to a new routine. I'm doing a bit of organising from home. One friend I know is at home with nothing to do.

Some more graphs, which are at least moving in the right direction:


But could the lock-downs be doing more harm than good?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-indefinite-lockdown-causing-death-of-hope-vg5z9wmn7  Quote:

"The number of deaths in Scotland last week was 60% above the five-year average for the first week of April but only about a third of the excess was attributed to Covid-19."

Some reassuring information here:

"Fully referenced facts about Covid-19, provided by experts in the field, to help our readers make a realistic risk assessment. (Regular updates below)"

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/ Quoting:

1. According to data from the best-studied countries such as South Korea, Iceland, Germany and Denmark, the overall lethality of Covid19 is between 0.1% and 0.4% and thus up to twenty times lower than initially assumed by the WHO.

2. A study in Nature Medicine comes to a similar conclusion even for the Chinese city of Wuhan. The initially significantly higher values for Wuhan were obtained because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not recorded.

3. 50% to 80% of test-positive individuals remain symptom-free. Even among the 70 to 79 year old persons about 60% remain symptom-free, many more show only mild symptoms.

Being asymptomatic  or presymptomatic for this disease, but still being a carrier is what makes COVID so terrifying. Being a respiratory disease makes it highly contagious. Unless you live in a low density/ low risk area, I think it would be crazy to open things back up now.   I am so afraid of spreading it to my mother, old people are not doing well with this virus.  I guess for some people the acceptable loss of life is worth the risk.

I think we are hitting the apex in my area, we had an influx of group and nursing home patient last week.
I am trying to get use to suiting up in the full PPE, with the double mask, googles, bonnet , gown. It is very uncomfortable and claustrophobic...how I imagine wearing a suit of armor must feel  

The protection of vulnerable people is the only reason I have so far supported the tight lockdown restrictions myself. It's as though governments have declared war on death itself - a war that obviously cannot be won.


https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

CFR = Case Fatality Rate, the % of deaths in those with the actual illness
IFR = Infection Fatality Rate, the % of deaths in those known to have been infected (and not necessarily with symptoms)

Quoting section:

Iceland: (Update 28th March)

Iceland has tested a higher proportion of people than any other country (9,768 individuals), equivalent to  26,762 per million inhabitants the highest in the world (as a  comparison, South Korea has tested  6,343 individuals). Screening suggests 0.5% are infected;  the correct figure is likely higher due to asymptomatics and many not seeking testing: estimates suggest the real number infected is 1%.

Iceland, (1st May) reports ten deaths in 1798 patients, CFR. 0.56%.  If we assumed 1% of the population (364,000) is infected, then the corresponding IFR would be 10/3640 = 0.3%. Iceland’s test and quarantine measures may have shielded the elderly group, and deaths may still go up as they lag infection by about two weeks.

Iceland’s higher rates of testing, the smaller population, and their ability to ascertain all those with Sars-CoV-2  means they can obtain. an accurate estimate of the CFR and the IFR during the pandemic (most countries will only be able to do this after the pandemic).

Current data from Iceland suggests their IFR is somewhere between 0.3% and 0.56%.

End of quote

So this means that the overall deadliness of CoviD19 is about 1 in 230 of those infected. For those in generally good health it will be much less than that.

A very critical article by this professor of pathology:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8597815/Britains-gone-lockdown-la-la-land-says-DR-JOHN-LEE.html

"There were no demands for a national shutdown in Britain in the winter of 2014/15, when more than 28,000 people died from seasonal flu; or during the Hong Kong flu epidemic of 1968, when a million people died worldwide, some 80,000 of them in Britain. To put that in perspective, when Boris Johnson saw fit to implement total lockdown on March 23 there had been just 335 Covid deaths in Britain. Of course, we are much more risk-averse today than in the Sixties, far less willing to accept death as our ultimate destiny or able to have a grown-up public discussion about it . . .

For months it has been clear that our own government and administrations internationally are in a fantasy world, determined to contain a virus which cannot be stamped out. Yet rather than face the uncomfortable truth we may have to learn to live with Covid-19, politicians are intent on pursuing policies which have devastating real-world effects."

It strange how hard europeans are touche by the virus, while it seems doing nothing in africa and most of Asia.

I would say Europeans bodies are more use to virus like that.

Jehan I wrote:It strange how hard Europeans are touche by the virus, while it seems doing nothing in Africa and most of Asia.

I would say Europeans bodies are more use to virus like that.

No, the Black American population has been devastated. It has to do with higher numbers of type 2 diabetes.

It appears that we are headed for our first dark winter, just as Biden predicted, with more lockdowns and death.
I don’t like going to work anymore and having to wear a mask all day, dealing with people... worrying about the virus. They tell us to stay home, be safe and then I go to work with 20 people in the department, plus patients.
It is almost a joke, the restrictions.
I am feeling a bit jealous and resentful towards the people that are able to work from home or even better they don’t work at all!
The news that the first round of the new vaccine will be given health care workers gives me anxiety. How can anyone be sure that it will be safe and effective?

Sary wrote:It appears that we are headed for our first dark winter, just as Biden predicted, with more lockdowns and death.
I don’t like going to work anymore and having to wear a mask all day, dealing with people... worrying about the virus. They tell us to stay home, be safe and then I go to work with 20 people in the department, plus patients.
It is almost a joke, the restrictions.
I am feeling a bit jealous and resentful towards the people that are able to work from home or even better they don’t work at all!
The news that the first round of the new vaccine will be given health care workers gives me anxiety. How can anyone be sure that it will be safe and effective?

I also work with a mask all day. It's very hard, and I'm sorry you have to go through it. I have known many who have gotten it, but not many have died (two). I don't think these harsh, economy destroying things are not necessary. We shouldn't have to be reminded that we're living in a plague.

I hope you're being properly paid for any risky or extra work you have to do. I don't even like wearing a mask to go shopping, but I've found a more comfortable way of wearing one - I place the lower part just below my mouth instead of under my chin so that still covers my mouth but doesn't pull on my ears as much.