Catalonia - The Issue of Independence

https://www.thelocal.es/20170918/catalonia-will-face-brital-improverishment-as-an-independent-state-warns-spain

"Catalonia would suffer "brutal" impoverishment if it splits from Spain, with a deep plunge in its economic output, Spain's economy minister warned Monday ahead of a disputed independence referendum in the region.

"The general impoverishment of the society would be brutal. GDP could fall between 25 and 30 percent and unemployment double," Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said in an interview with radio Cope. An independent Catalonia would find itself outside of the eurozone so 75 percent of its products would be slapped with tarifs, banks would have to relocate, and the region would have to set up its own currency, he added. "The independence of Catalonia would be absolutely irrational from an economic point of view," the minister said.  

Catalonia, which accounts for a fifth of Spain's economy and is roughly the size of Belgium, is slated to hold an independence referendum on October 1st, which Madrid and Spanish courts have declared illegal. The referendum has not had an impact on the economy because financial markets do not think Catalan independence is a "minimally viable and acceptable scenario", the economy minister said.

Catalonia's pro-secession regional government argues that an independent Catalonia would be able to decide its own fiscal policy and investments, which would boost its GDP. It says Catalonia currently pays billions more in taxes to Madrid each year than it gets back in investments and services but this would end if the region split from Spain.

The Catalan government estimates it pays €16 billion ($19 billion) more to Madrid than it gets back, or about 8.0 percent of it the region's GDP. Spain's central government, which uses a different calculation, puts the figure at around 10 billion euros, or 5.0 percent of Catalonia's economic output.

Catalonia, home to around 7.5 million people, is tied with Madrid for the title of Spain's richest region. Its unemployment rate stood at 13.2 percent in the second quarter, lower than the 17.2 percent rate posted for all of Spain."


Also: https://www.thelocal.es/20170918/spanish-police-seize-pro-catalan-referendum-pamphlets

Spanish police on Sunday seized 1.3 million pamphlets and posters supporting Catalonia's independence referendum, the latest move to try to block the vote.

Catalonia's pro-separatist government is determined to hold a referendum on October 1st, despite it being banned by Spain's Constitutional Court.

The documents were seized at an advertising distribution company near Barcelona, the Spanish interior ministry said in a statement.

. . . Faced with a determined Catalan government, Spain has multiplied its efforts to crack down on the referendum, having previously seized propaganda material and threatened to arrest Catalan mayors who allow the vote.

. . . Catalan society is deeply divided on the subject of independence. A poll commissioned by the regional government in July showed 49.4 percent of Catalans were against independence while 41.1 percent were in favour.

On the other hand catalan secessionists say catalonia independent would be like the Denmark of the mediterranean...

Interested and deceitful declarations all around.

I think catalan secessionists don't want a referendum that if it was serious and agreed with spanish goverment they would lose according all surveys about the matter, including their own surveys.

What they want is to put spanish govern and legal system to the limit to get an agressive and disproportionate response from Madrid so they could play the victim role again to get elctoral gains and discredit of spanish democracy.

Catalan nationalists have good reasons to feel abused by Madrid, back in 2006 a new authonomy statute for Catalonia was refused thanks to dirty manoeuvres of PP party, and now nationalists are playing very dirty games too.

We have no remedy.

I had been thinking - the Spanish government might as well give Catalonia an official referendum - the result would probably be 'No' and denying it a referendum will probably increase separatist feeling in the long run. But I suppose the Prime Minister does not want to risk going down in history as the man who allowed Spain to break up.

Isn't any EU law of minority protection who might force Spain to give a referendum on it?

Neon Knight wrote:I had been thinking - the Spanish government might as well give Catalonia an official referendum - the result would probably be 'No' and denying it a referendum will probably increase separatist feeling in the long run. But I suppose the Prime Minister does not want to risk going down in history as the man who allowed Spain to break up.

Probably the best solution, but also a dangerous precedent. Once opened the 'self-determination box' we would have someone demanding for his own referendum of self-determination almost every week.

Even Castille has her independist party...

Jehan I wrote:Isn't any EU law of minority protection who might force Spain to give a referendum on it?

au contraire, most states have articles in their constitutions forbiding the division of the state, including Germany and France I think.

Impasible wrote:

Jehan I wrote:Isn't any EU law of minority protection who might force Spain to give a referendum on it?

au contraire, most states have articles in their constitutions forbiding the division of the state, including Germany and France I think.

Indeed France has in the constituion an article like that. But there is also a possibility for a territory to become independant. I don't really know all the details about the laws but some islands (New caledonia) will have a referendum about secession soon.

Anyway I was thinking about european union law, not at a national level. I ignore the details but there are some laws about minority protection, so I wonder If they have anticipate a secession referendum in EU laws; if there are conditions.

Impasible wrote:

Neon Knight wrote:I had been thinking - the Spanish government might as well give Catalonia an official referendum - the result would probably be 'No' and denying it a referendum will probably increase separatist feeling in the long run. But I suppose the Prime Minister does not want to risk going down in history as the man who allowed Spain to break up.

Probably the best solution, but also a dangerous precedent. Once opened the 'self-determination box' we would have someone demanding for his own referendum of self-determination almost every week.

Even Castille has her independist party...

So it's not like the UK then, where only Scotland makes a serious demand for independence. I noticed that Spain is the only western European nation that does not recognise the independence of Kosovo and read that the reason is to be consistent with its own policy of resisting national break-up.

Neon Knight wrote:

So it's not like the UK then, where only Scotland makes a serious demand for independence. I noticed that Spain is the only western European nation that does not recognise the independence of Kosovo and read that the reason is to be consistent with its own policy of resisting national break-up.

Regions in Spain with independentist political forces.



https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regionalismo_y_nacionalismo_en_Espa%C3%B1a
there are versions in english and french.

Jehan I wrote:Anyway I was thinking about european union law, not at a national level. I ignore the details but there are some laws about minority protection, so I wonder If they have anticipate a secession referendum in EU laws; if there are conditions.

I would have the following rules:

* Any official region of a nation can have an independence referendum.
* The minimum voting age will be 21.
* For independence to happen, the result must be a 'Yes' of at least 55%.
* If the result is 'No' then another referendum cannot be held for 20 years.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/catalonia-could-hold-regional-elections-on-february-14/46071802

"Catalonia's separatist drive has dominated Spanish politics for several years, particularly since the regional assembly made a short-lived declaration of independence in October 2017, following a referendum declared illegal by judges. Catalonia's 7.5 million people are split over independence, with the latest opinion poll showing 42% in favour and 50% against."

So if we split the 8% of neutrals then that's 54% currently against independence.