Africa’s dangerous baby boom

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/09/22/what-to-do-about-africas-dangerous-baby-boom

THE 21st century, in one way at least, will be African. In 1990 sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 16% of the world’s births. Because African birth rates are so much higher than elsewhere, the proportion has risen to 27% and is expected to hit 37% in 2050. About a decade later, more babies will be born in sub-Saharan Africa than in the whole of Asia, including India and China. These projections by the UN, if correct, are astounding. There is good reason for the world to worry about Africa’s baby boom.



. . . The real problem is that too many babies sap economic development and make it harder to lift Africans out of poverty. In the world as a whole, the dependency ratio—the share of people under the age of 20 or older than 64, who are provided for by working-age people—stands at 74:100. In sub-Saharan Africa it is a staggering 129:100.

In stark contrast with most of the world, notably Asia, the number of extremely poor Africans is rising, in part because the highest birth rates are in the poorest parts of the continent. On September 19th the World Bank reported that the number of people living in extreme poverty rose in sub-Saharan Africa between 2013 and 2015, from 405m to 413m. Many African countries already struggle to build enough schools and medical clinics for their existing children, let alone the masses to come.

. . . The trouble is that the reduction in fertility—the number of births per woman—is happening much more slowly in Africa than elsewhere. Half of Nigerians already live in cities, compared with one-third of Indians. Yet Nigeria’s fertility rate is more than double India’s. Overall, the fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa is dropping about half as quickly as it did in Asia or Latin America when families were the same size.

Steve Sailor does a good job covering this. he calls the graph you posted "The World's most important graph."

unz.com/isteve

OsricPearl wrote:Steve Sailor does a good job covering this. he calls the graph you posted "The World's most important graph."

unz.com/isteve

Expert researcher that I am, I found it One of the comments:

"As I wrote on another thread, send 200 million Africans to Europe, and the impact on Europe would be disastrous, while Africa would only be back to the population it had just 10 years ago. Flooding Europe with Third Worlders is not the answer. In the next 5-10 years we will see either very dramatic changes in Western immigration policy or in Western demographics. One way or another, the world of 2025 will be very, very different."

It's hard to see a humane solution from Europe. Already Italy are blocking rescue ships. Will the Africans start sailing across in better vessels capable of making the full journey? Some say they will settle in North Africa if they can't get to Europe.

Neon Knight wrote:

OsricPearl wrote:Steve Sailor does a good job covering this. he calls the graph you posted "The World's most important graph."

unz.com/isteve

Expert researcher that I am, I found it One of the comments:

"As I wrote on another thread, send 200 million Africans to Europe, and the impact on Europe would be disastrous, while Africa would only be back to the population it had just 10 years ago. Flooding Europe with Third Worlders is not the answer. In the next 5-10 years we will see either very dramatic changes in Western immigration policy or in Western demographics. One way or another, the world of 2025 will be very, very different."

It's hard to see a humane solution from Europe. Already Italy are blocking rescue ships. Will the Africans start sailing across in better vessels capable of making the full journey? Some say they will settle in North Africa if they can't get to Europe.

North Africa is finished, IMO, unless they build a wall. I believe Algeria is building a wall to protect themselves. We have to stop giving charities to them. It's only hurting them more. I don't give to any charities that provide food or any help to Africa because I see them as counter productive. The only missionary to Africa that ever got my money was one who was teaching the locals more efficient farming techniques.

If Africa could be set on the path to Western style civilisation, it would have happened by now.

In theory, Western Europe should not be difficult to defend from mass African and Asian immigration:

https://www.worldatlas.com/img/areamap/continent/europe_map.gif

Would they ever try to come through Ukraine and Russia?